This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
home:pathogenesis:epidemiology [09.01.2019] – [Use of other immunomodulatory or immunosuppressive agents] sallieq | home:pathogenesis:epidemiology [09.14.2022] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1 | ||
---|---|---|---|
Line 11: | Line 11: | ||
- | Manifestations of both arteriosclerosis(({{pubmed> | + | Manifestations of both arteriosclerosis(({{pmid> |
- | At the beginning of the twentieth century, infectious diseases were the leading cause of death worldwide. In the United States, three diseases — tuberculosis, | + | At the beginning of the twentieth century, infectious diseases were the leading cause of death worldwide. In the United States, three diseases — tuberculosis, |
- | According to a recent //Nature// paper there were 36 million deaths from " | + | According to a recent //Nature// paper there were 36 million deaths from " |
Line 24: | Line 24: | ||
- | While many researchers have argued((Sigerist, | + | While many researchers have argued((Sigerist, |
Line 31: | Line 31: | ||
===== Current prevalence of chronic disease in the United States ===== | ===== Current prevalence of chronic disease in the United States ===== | ||
- | In 2000*, approximately 125 million Americans (45% of the population) had chronic conditions and 61 million (21% of the population) had multiple chronic conditions.(({{pubmed> | + | In 2000*, approximately 125 million Americans (45% of the population) had chronic conditions and 61 million (21% of the population) had multiple chronic conditions.(({{pmid> |
According to the 2004 report: | According to the 2004 report: | ||
Line 38: | Line 38: | ||
In 2004, almost half of all Americans, or 133 million people, live with a chronic condition. ... People with chronic conditions account for 83 percent of health care spending and those with five or more chronic conditions have an average of almost fifteen physician visits and fill over 50 prescriptions in a year. | In 2004, almost half of all Americans, or 133 million people, live with a chronic condition. ... People with chronic conditions account for 83 percent of health care spending and those with five or more chronic conditions have an average of almost fifteen physician visits and fill over 50 prescriptions in a year. | ||
- | // | + | // |
- | The rate of chronic health conditions among children in the United States [[http:// | + | The rate of chronic health conditions among children in the United States [[https:// |
- | * the May, 2017 [[http:// | + | * the May, 2017 [[https:// |
in Chapter One: Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions | in Chapter One: Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions | ||
Line 56: | Line 56: | ||
- | According to a 2012 //JAMA// paper, the most common chronic condition experienced by adults is multimorbidity, | + | According to a 2012 //JAMA// paper, the most common chronic condition experienced by adults is multimorbidity, |
- | A Dutch survey of 212,902 patients' | + | A Dutch survey of 212,902 patients' |
* Multimorbidity of chronic diseases was found among 13% of the Dutch population and in 37% of those older than 55 years. | * Multimorbidity of chronic diseases was found among 13% of the Dutch population and in 37% of those older than 55 years. | ||
* Among patients over 55 years with a specific chronic disease more than two-thirds also had one or more other chronic diseases. | * Among patients over 55 years with a specific chronic disease more than two-thirds also had one or more other chronic diseases. | ||
* Most disease pairs occurred more frequently than would be expected if diseases had been independent. Comorbidity was not limited to specific combinations of diseases; about 70% of those with a disease had one or more extra chronic diseases recorded which were not included in the top five of most common diseases. | * Most disease pairs occurred more frequently than would be expected if diseases had been independent. Comorbidity was not limited to specific combinations of diseases; about 70% of those with a disease had one or more extra chronic diseases recorded which were not included in the top five of most common diseases. | ||
- | A separate Dutch analysis found that the prevalence of chronic diseases doubled between 1985 and 2005 with the proportion of patients with four or more chronic diseases increased in this period by approximately 300%.(({{pubmed> | + | A separate Dutch analysis found that the prevalence of chronic diseases doubled between 1985 and 2005 with the proportion of patients with four or more chronic diseases increased in this period by approximately 300%.(({{pmid> |
===== Projected increase in prevalence of chronic diseases | ===== Projected increase in prevalence of chronic diseases | ||
- | Chronic diseases are the largest cause of death in the world. In 2002, the leading chronic diseases—cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes—caused 29 million deaths worldwide.(({{pubmed> | + | Chronic diseases are the largest cause of death in the world. In 2002, the leading chronic diseases—cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes—caused 29 million deaths worldwide.(({{pmid> |
{{: | {{: | ||
- | In the United States, the number of people with chronic conditions is projected to increase steadily for the next 30 years.(({{pubmed> | + | In the United States, the number of people with chronic conditions is projected to increase steadily for the next 30 years.(({{pmid> |
Line 80: | Line 80: | ||
- | * **pre-term delivery** – The U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) has reported a 20% increase (from 10.6% to 12.7%) in the percentage of preterm deliveries during the years 1990–2005.(({{pubmed> | + | * **pre-term delivery** – The U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) has reported a 20% increase (from 10.6% to 12.7%) in the percentage of preterm deliveries during the years 1990–2005.(({{pmid> |
- | * **stroke** – A 2009 descriptive study (no controls) by a group at the Washington University School of Medicine, reports that the age at which their patients are having a stroke has significantly declined.(({{pubmed> | + | * **stroke** – A 2009 descriptive study (no controls) by a group at the Washington University School of Medicine, reports that the age at which their patients are having a stroke has significantly declined.(({{pmid> |
==== Obesity ==== | ==== Obesity ==== | ||
- | Obesity rates worldwide [[http:// | + | Obesity rates worldwide [[https:// |
- | Another team concluded in a recent meta-analysis that if Americans keep gaining weight at the current rate, 75 percent of U.S. adults will be overweight and 41 percent obese by the year 2015. A 2002 paper concluded that "the prevalence of obesity is increasing globally, with nearly half a billion of the world’s population now considered to be overweight or obese." | + | Another team concluded in a recent meta-analysis that if Americans keep gaining weight at the current rate, 75 percent of U.S. adults will be overweight and 41 percent obese by the year 2015. A 2002 paper concluded that "the prevalence of obesity is increasing globally, with nearly half a billion of the world’s population now considered to be overweight or obese." |
Line 99: | Line 99: | ||
Obesity is likely to continue to increase, and if nothing is done, it will soon become the leading preventable cause of death in the United States. | Obesity is likely to continue to increase, and if nothing is done, it will soon become the leading preventable cause of death in the United States. | ||
- | //**Youfa Wang, MD, PhD**// (({{pubmed> | + | //**Youfa Wang, MD, PhD**// (({{pmid> |
Line 105: | Line 105: | ||
==== Diabetes ==== | ==== Diabetes ==== | ||
- | In a [[http:// | + | In a [[https:// |
- | According to a 2009 paper in //Diabetes care//, the number of people with diabetes in the United States is expected to double over the next 25 years. That would bring the total by 2034 to about 44.1 million people with the disease, up from 23.7 million today.(({{pubmed> | + | According to a 2009 paper in //Diabetes care//, the number of people with diabetes in the United States is expected to double over the next 25 years. That would bring the total by 2034 to about 44.1 million people with the disease, up from 23.7 million today.(({{pmid> |
< | < | ||
Line 120: | Line 120: | ||
- | Psychiatric disorders which are on the increase globally, already rank among the leading causes of disability, and are expected to take over first place within the next few years. Indeed, the World Health Report 2001 cites depression as causing the largest amount of disability worldwide and in 2004 Ustun stated that depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden but represents the largest amount of non-fatal burden globally.(({{pubmed> | + | Psychiatric disorders which are on the increase globally, already rank among the leading causes of disability, and are expected to take over first place within the next few years. Indeed, the World Health Report 2001 cites depression as causing the largest amount of disability worldwide and in 2004 Ustun stated that depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden but represents the largest amount of non-fatal burden globally.(({{pmid> |
==== Chronic fatigue syndrome, fibromyalgia, | ==== Chronic fatigue syndrome, fibromyalgia, | ||
- | According to the [[http:// | + | According to the [[https:// |
^ ^CCHS 2005 ^CCHS 2010^ % change^ | ^ ^CCHS 2005 ^CCHS 2010^ % change^ | ||
Line 134: | Line 134: | ||
- | < | + | < |
==== Cardiovascular disease ==== | ==== Cardiovascular disease ==== | ||
- | It has been predicted that atherosclerosis will be the primary cause of death in the world by 2020.(({{pubmed> | + | It has been predicted that atherosclerosis will be the primary cause of death in the world by 2020.(({{pmid> |
Line 153: | Line 153: | ||
- | Members of societies that do not supplement their food chains with vitamin D have naturally low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-D).(({{pubmed> | + | Members of societies that do not supplement their food chains with vitamin D have naturally low levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-D).(({{pmid> |
- | For this reason, data which identifies vitamin D " | + | For this reason, data which identifies vitamin D " |
[{{ : | [{{ : | ||
Line 161: | Line 161: | ||
- | According to Dr. Roger Bouillon of the University of Leuven, "over one billion" | + | According to Dr. Roger Bouillon of the University of Leuven, "over one billion" |
The accuracy of this estimate is debatable. If this figure includes those populations that do not supplement with vitamin D, Dr. Bouillon' | The accuracy of this estimate is debatable. If this figure includes those populations that do not supplement with vitamin D, Dr. Bouillon' | ||
- | A study published in 2008, controlling for age and other factors, found that Americans' | + | A study published in 2008, controlling for age and other factors, found that Americans' |
===== Factors driving chronic disease ===== | ===== Factors driving chronic disease ===== | ||
- | While it has been widely hypothesized that lifestyle factors, including a poor diet and a lack of exercise, are driving what the World Health Organization [[http:// | + | While it has been widely hypothesized that lifestyle factors, including a poor diet and a lack of exercise, are driving what the World Health Organization [[https:// |
- | [[http:// | + | [[https:// |
According to the Marshall Pathogenesis, | According to the Marshall Pathogenesis, | ||
- | [{{ : | + | [{{ : |
Line 179: | Line 179: | ||
As discussed in the article [[home: | As discussed in the article [[home: | ||
- | * **mortality and morbidity among historical English cohorts** – In a 2004 //Science// paper, Finch and Crimmins proposed that one of the major driving factors behind mortality at all ages was infection and inflammation. The team pointed to studies of historical cohorts in England and Sweden showing that as rates of mortality at younger ages improved in groups born in different years, the adult survivors in those cohorts also had lower rates of mortality and disease. While others have concluded that improvements in sanitation, nutrition, income, and medicine are the driving factors behind historical difference in mortality across all age groups across the last two centuries, Finch and Crimmins argue one of the principal factors, was the difference in " | + | * **mortality and morbidity among historical English cohorts** – In a 2004 //Science// paper, Finch and Crimmins proposed that one of the major driving factors behind mortality at all ages was infection and inflammation. The team pointed to studies of historical cohorts in England and Sweden showing that as rates of mortality at younger ages improved in groups born in different years, the adult survivors in those cohorts also had lower rates of mortality and disease. While others have concluded that improvements in sanitation, nutrition, income, and medicine are the driving factors behind historical difference in mortality across all age groups across the last two centuries, Finch and Crimmins argue one of the principal factors, was the difference in " |
- | * **arteriosclerosis among American blacks and whites** – Costa //et al.// concluded that the difference in the rate of arteriosclerosis (hardening of the arteries) between older blacks from 1910 and older whites from 2004 was due to the discrepancy in infectious burden between the two populations.(({{pubmed> | + | * **arteriosclerosis among American blacks and whites** – Costa //et al.// concluded that the difference in the rate of arteriosclerosis (hardening of the arteries) between older blacks from 1910 and older whites from 2004 was due to the discrepancy in infectious burden between the two populations.(({{pmid> |
- | * **longevity among 19th/20th century Northern Europeans** – Early-life infection may also explain effects of the season of birth on longevity. Among birth cohorts of the 19th and early 20th centuries from Northern Europe, those born in the spring eventually lived 3 to 6 months longer than autumn births, with corresponding differences in some later-life diseases.(({{pubmed> | + | * **longevity among 19th/20th century Northern Europeans** – Early-life infection may also explain effects of the season of birth on longevity. Among birth cohorts of the 19th and early 20th centuries from Northern Europe, those born in the spring eventually lived 3 to 6 months longer than autumn births, with corresponding differences in some later-life diseases.(({{pmid> |
- | * **malaria among Mexicans** – Venkataramani [[http:// | + | * **malaria among Mexicans** – Venkataramani [[https:// |
- | * **parasite prevalence and worldwide distribution of IQ** – Eppig //et al.// performed a broad analysis of the relationship between average intelligence and parasite load. Using three measures of average national intelligence quotient (IQ), the team found a robust worldwide (as well as within five of six world regions) inverse correlation between intelligence and infectious burden. According to their analysis, infectious disease remains the most powerful predictor of average national IQ when temperature, | + | * **parasite prevalence and worldwide distribution of IQ** – Eppig //et al.// performed a broad analysis of the relationship between average intelligence and parasite load. Using three measures of average national intelligence quotient (IQ), the team found a robust worldwide (as well as within five of six world regions) inverse correlation between intelligence and infectious burden. According to their analysis, infectious disease remains the most powerful predictor of average national IQ when temperature, |
- | * **pathogen prevalence may influence social conformity and choice of a political system** – As described in [[http:// | + | * **pathogen prevalence may influence social conformity and choice of a political system** – As described in [[https:// |
Line 200: | Line 200: | ||
* [[home: | * [[home: | ||
- | *The rise of the sun-loving culture in the 50s. Prior to the bikini, it was not so fashionable for the young to sunbathe excessively | + | |
* Supplementation with folic acid | * Supplementation with folic acid | ||
Line 208: | Line 208: | ||
* Routine interference with immune reactions: anti-inflammatories, | * Routine interference with immune reactions: anti-inflammatories, | ||
* [[home: | * [[home: | ||
+ | * The rise of the sun-loving culture in the 50s. Prior to the bikini, it was not so fashionable for the young to sunbathe excessively. | ||
==== Novel vectors for sharing pathogens ==== | ==== Novel vectors for sharing pathogens ==== | ||
Line 235: | Line 236: | ||
==== Market for health care in the United States ==== | ==== Market for health care in the United States ==== | ||
- | In recent years, there has been a dramatic increases in the incidence and prevalence of chronic disease. For this reason, there has been a commensurate increase in the percentage of people who take prescription drugs. Over the last 10 years, the percentage of Americans who took at least one prescription drug in the past month [[http:// | + | In recent years, there has been a dramatic increases in the incidence and prevalence of chronic disease. For this reason, there has been a commensurate increase in the percentage of people who take prescription drugs. Over the last 10 years, the percentage of Americans who took at least one prescription drug in the past month [[https:// |
- | This said, the premium the U.S. spends on health care does not appear to lead to better longevity.(({{pubmed> | + | This said, the premium the U.S. spends on health care does not appear to lead to better longevity.(({{pmid> |
[{{: | [{{: | ||
Line 244: | Line 245: | ||
==== Drug development ==== | ==== Drug development ==== | ||
- | Even though pharmaceutical companies have spent more on the research and development of new drugs, the number of new drugs approved has declined in the last several decades.(({{pubmed> | + | Even though pharmaceutical companies have spent more on the research and development of new drugs, the number of new drugs approved has declined in the last several decades.(({{pmid> |
[{{: | [{{: | ||
Line 261: | Line 262: | ||
===== Read more ===== | ===== Read more ===== | ||
- | * [[http:// | + | * [[https:// |
- | * [[http:// | + | * [[https:// |
- | * [[http:// | + | * [[https:// |
- | * [[http:// | + | * [[https:// |
* [[https:// | * [[https:// | ||
{{tag> | {{tag> | ||
+ | < | ||
===== Notes and comments ===== | ===== Notes and comments ===== | ||
Line 274: | Line 276: | ||
some links left, all to same article but have ongoing link to authors in par. " | some links left, all to same article but have ongoing link to authors in par. " | ||
- | also Evolutionary biiology | + | also Evolutionary biiology |
requires sign in | requires sign in | ||
- | http:// | + | https:// |
Karesh - global trade and food | Karesh - global trade and food | ||
Line 283: | Line 285: | ||
< | < | ||
Obesity Has Nearly Doubled Worldwide Since 1980: Report | Obesity Has Nearly Doubled Worldwide Since 1980: Report | ||
- | http:// | + | https:// |
- | < | + | < |
</ | </ | ||
Line 305: | Line 307: | ||
The United States had one of the highest rates of diabetes among high-income countries. Others in that top-ranking bracket included Spain, New Zealand and Greenland. | The United States had one of the highest rates of diabetes among high-income countries. Others in that top-ranking bracket included Spain, New Zealand and Greenland. | ||
- | http:// | + | https:// |
Line 313: | Line 315: | ||
< | < | ||
- | http:// | + | https:// |
One in six U.S. children now has a developmental disability such as autism, learning disorders or attention-deficit/ | One in six U.S. children now has a developmental disability such as autism, learning disorders or attention-deficit/ | ||
Line 321: | Line 323: | ||
Much of the bump up in cases seems driven by rising rates of autism and ADHD, experts say | Much of the bump up in cases seems driven by rising rates of autism and ADHD, experts say | ||
</ | </ | ||
- | ===== References ===== | + | ===== References =====</ |